Citrini Research warns of AI's "ghost GDP" risk and demands that windfall earnings be taxed in light of job displacement

A new report from Citrini Research warns that artificial intelligence could inflate headline economic growth while concealing deep disruption in labour markets — a scenario it calls “ghost GDP.”

Speaking to Bloomberg, co-author Alap Shah, chief investment officer at Lotus Technology Management, said governments may eventually need to tax incremental or windfall gains from AI to offset job losses caused by automation.

The core concern is that AI-driven productivity gains could lift output and corporate profits on paper, boosting GDP figures, while wage growth and employment weaken underneath the surface. Without policy intervention, the report argues, the economic benefits of AI could accrue disproportionately to capital owners, widening inequality and increasing strain on fiscal systems.

Shah noted that market reaction to the report was “definitely larger than we expected,” highlighting investor sensitivity to second-order effects of AI adoption.

Unlike earlier AI systems that mainly augmented human productivity, newer “agentic” AI systems can autonomously execute workflows across coding, legal documentation, research, customer service and financial analysis. According to Shah, this shift could compress white-collar labour demand much faster than markets currently anticipate.

While agentic AI may represent one of the largest productivity unlocks in decades, the report suggests it could also trigger one of the fastest labour substitution cycles in modern economic history — raising complex policy questions about taxation, redistribution and workforce transition.